A long road ahead. A German national survey study on awareness and willingness of surgeons towards the carbon footprint of modern surgical procedures.

Background: Climate change may well be the "largest threat" to humankind. Changes to our climate system lead to a decrease in global health. The healthcare sector presents one of the largest carbon footprints across all industries. Since surgical departments have one of the largest carbon footprints within the healthcare sector, they represent an area with vast opportunities for improvement. To drive change, it is vital to create awareness of these issues and encourage engagement in changes among people working in the healthcare industry. Methods: We conducted an anonymous cross-sectional survey study to assess awareness among surgeons regarding the impact of healthcare systems on climate change. The questions were designed to investigate surgeons' willingness to accept and promote changes to reduce carbon footprints. Participants included surgical professionals of all ages and levels of expertise. Results: A total of 210 participants completed the survey in full and were included in the evaluation. Sixty percent emphasized a lack of information and the need for personal education. Over 90 % expressed concern for the environment and a strong desire to gain new insights. Provided that clinical performance remains the same, more than 70 % are willing to embrace carbon-friendly alternatives. In this context, all participants accepted the additional time required for training and initially increased personal efforts to achieve equal performance. Conclusion: Limited awareness and information about carbon footprints were observed in surgical departments in German hospitals. Nevertheless, the vast majority of surgeons across all age groups are more than willing to acquire new insights and adapt to changes in order to reduce energy consumption and carbon dioxide production.

Changes of long-term survival of resection and liver transplantation in hepatocellular carcinoma throughout the years: A meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) still is one of the most detrimental malignant diseases in the world. As two curative surgical therapies exist, the discussion whether to opt for liver resection (LR) or transplantation (LT) is ongoing, especially as novel techniques to improve outcome have emerged for both. The aim of the study was to investigate how the utilization and outcome of the respective modalities changed through time. METHODS: We searched Medline and PubMed for relevant publications comparing LT and LR in HCC patients during the time period from 1990 to 2022, prior to March 31, 2023. A total of 63 studies involving 19,804 patients - of whom 8178 patients received a liver graft and 11,626 underwent partial hepatectomy - were included in this meta-analysis. RESULTS: LT is associated with significantly better 5-year overall survival (OS) (64.83%) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) (70.20%) than LR (OS: 50.83%, OR: 1.79, p < 0.001; RFS: 34.46%, OR: 5.32, p < 0.001). However, these differences are not as evident in short-term intervals. Older cohorts showed comparable disparities between the outcome of the respective modalities, as did newer cohorts after 2005. This might be due to the similar improvement in survival rates that were observed for both, LT (15-23%) and LR (12-20%) during the last 30 years. CONCLUSION: LT still outperforms LR in the therapy of HCC in terms of long-term survival rates. Yet, LR outcome has remarkably improved which is of major importance in reference to the well-known limitations that occur in LT.

Imaging-Derived Biomarkers Integrated with Clinical and Laboratory Values Predict Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Liver Transplantation.

Purpose: To investigate the prognostic value of computed tomography (CT) derived imaging biomarkers in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT) and develop a predictive nomogram model. Patients and Methods: This retrospective study included 178 patients with histopathologically confirmed HCC who underwent liver transplantation between 2007 and 2021 at the two academic liver centers. We evaluated dedicated imaging features from baseline multiphase contrast-enhanced CT supplemented by several clinical findings and laboratory parameters. Time-to-recurrence was estimated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Univariable Cox proportional hazard regression and multivariable Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression were used to assess independent prognostic factors for recurrence. A nomogram model was then built based on the independent factors selected through LASSO regression, to predict the probabilities of HCC recurrence at one, three, and five years. Results: The rate of HCC recurrence after LT was 17.4% (31 of 178). The LASSO analysis revealed six independent predictors associated with an elevated risk of tumor recurrence. These predictors included the presence of peritumoral enhancement, the presence of over three tumor lesions, the largest tumor diameter greater than 3 cm, serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels exceeding 400 ng/mL, and the presence of a tumor capsule. Conversely, a history of bridging therapies was found to be correlated with a reduced risk of HCC recurrence. In addition, Kaplan-Meier curves showed patients with irregular margin, satellite nodules, or small lesions displayed shorter time-to-recurrence. Our nomogram demonstrated good performance, yielding a C-index of 0.835 and AUC values of 0.86, 0.88, and 0.85 for the predictions of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year TTR, respectively. Conclusion: Imaging parameters derived from baseline contrast-enhanced CT showing malignant behavior and aggressive growth patterns, along with serum AFP and history of bridging therapies, show potential as biomarkers for predicting HCC recurrence after transplantation.

Frequent Follow-Up of Delisted Liver Transplant Candidates Is Necessary: An Observational Study about Characteristics and Outcomes of Delisted Liver Transplant Candidates.

This observational study focuses on the characteristics and survival of patients taken off of the liver transplant waiting list. Assessment of post-delisting survival and a frequent follow-up of patients after delisting are important keys to improve the survival rate of patients with liver failure after being delisted. Within this study, delisted liver transplant candidates were divided into the following groups: (1) "too good" (54%) or (2) "too sick" (22%) for transplantation, (3) adherence issues (12%) or (4) therapy goal changed (11%). The 5-year survival after delisting within these groups was 84%, 9%, 50%, and 68%, respectively. Less than 3% of the delisted patients had to be relisted again. The clinical expert decision of the multidisciplinary transplant team was sufficiently accurate to differentiate between patients requiring liver transplantation and those who were delisted after a stable recovery of liver function. The assessment of post-delisting survival may serve as a complementary metric to assess differences in center practices and to estimate cumulative post-delisting mortality risk.

Regional transplant rates depend more on physician-dependent variables than on proximity to transplant center.

PURPOSE: The objective of this work was to uncover inequalities in access to liver transplantation in Bavaria, Germany. METHODS: For this purpose, the annual transplantation rate per 1 million inhabitants for the respective districts was determined from the aggregated postal codes of the place of residence of transplanted patients. The variables examined were proximity and travel time to the nearest transplant center, as well as the care category of the regional hospital. In addition, we assessed whether the head of gastroenterology at the regional hospital through which liver transplant candidates are referred was trained at a liver transplant center. RESULTS: We could not demonstrate a direct relationship between proximity or travel time to the nearest transplant center and access to liver transplantation. Multivariate regression analysis shows that liver transplant training (p < 0.0001) of the chief physician (gastroenterologist) of the regional hospital was the most decisive independent factor for access to liver transplantation within a district. CONCLUSION: We show that the transplant training experience of the head of gastroenterology at a regional hospital is an independent factor for the regional transplantation rate. Therefore, it appears important to maintain some liver transplant expertise outside the transplant centers in order to properly identify and assign potential transplant candidates for transplantation.

Nachhaltigkeit im OP ­ korrelieren Sterilität, Sicherheit und Service auch mit einer ressourcenschonenden Verwendung von Medizinprodukten?

In times of an unprecedented energy crisis, sustainability is becoming increasingly important. This development does not stop at medicine and especially at the operating room, where a considerable amount of greenhouse gases is produced. Due to this development, the question arises whether sterility, safety and service can be reconciled with a resource-saving use of medical devices. One goal here must be to replace disposables, which offer a high degree of sterility, with safely reprocessable reusables. Due to rising energy costs as well as supply bottlenecks, reprocessing of products offers increasing independence for the hospital. Furthermore, the move towards renewable energy for reusable products is visibly improving the carbon footprint. The independence gained by clinics also offers greater safety for patients, as the risk of unavailable materials is reduced. In addition to the goal of increasing the use of reusable items, the recycling of disposable products will also play an increasing role. Life cycle assessments will increasingly guide the optimal choice of products in this regard. In summary, these options offer the possibility of implementing the increasing need for sustainability in the OR.

[Project: zero emission surgery]. / Projekt: "zero emission surgery".

BACKGROUND: Climate neutrality is the major aim of our generation. In order to be able to achieve this a net zero emission should be strived for in operating theaters. OBJECTIVE: What does zero emission implicate for the operative sector? Which structural approaches already exist? Can zero emission surgery be achieved? MATERIAL AND METHODS: Evaluation of published studies, discussion of fundamental research and expert recommendations. RESULTS: Studies in England and Germany show that by structural alterations and strict sustainability structures net zero emission surgery seems to be feasible. In Germany the attention and awareness of the topic are greatly increasing and the first projects and studies have been launched. CONCLUSION: To achieve the aim of net zero emission by 2050 we must rapidly and significantly increase our efforts.

Dynamics of Peripheral Blood Immune Cells during the Perioperative Period after Digestive System Resections: A Systematic Analysis of the Literature.

An operation in itself is a kind of trauma and may lead to immunosuppression followed by a bounce back. Not many studies exist that describe dynamics of the distribution of peripheral blood (PB) immune cells during the perioperative period. Considering this scarcity, we aggregated the data on the dynamics of immune cells in patients with digestive system resections during the perioperative period and the relationship with short- and long-term prognoses. By the systematic retrieval of documents, we collected perioperative period data on white blood cells (WBC), lymphocytes, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), CD4+ T cells, CD8+ T cells, helper T cells (Th), B cells, natural killer cells (NK), dendritic cells (DCs), regulatory T cells (Tregs), regulatory B cells (Bregs), and Myeloid derived suppressor cells (MDSC). The frequency and distribution of these immune cells and the relationship with the patient's prognosis were summarized. A total of 1916 patients' data were included. Compared with before surgery, WBC, lymphocytes, CD4+ cells, CD8+ T cells, MDSC, and NK cells decreased after surgery, and then returned to preoperative levels. After operation DCs increased, then gradually recovered to the preoperative level. No significant changes were found in B cell levels during the perioperative period. Compared with the preoperative time-point, Tregs and Bregs both increased postoperatively. Only high levels of the preoperative and/or postoperative NLR were found to be related to the patient's prognosis. In summary, the surgery itself can cause changes in peripheral blood immune cells, which might change the immunogenicity. Therefore, the immunosuppression caused by the surgical trauma should be minimized. In oncological patients this might even influence long-term results.

Hypothermic Oxygenated Machine Perfusion (HOPE) Prior to Liver Transplantation Mitigates Post-Reperfusion Syndrome and Perioperative Electrolyte Shifts.

(1) Background: Post-reperfusion syndrome (PRS) and electrolyte shifts (ES) represent considerable challenges during liver transplantation (LT) being associated with significant morbidity. We aimed to investigate the impact of hypothermic oxygenated machine perfusion (HOPE) on PRS and ES in LT. (2) Methods: In this retrospective study, we compared intraoperative parameters of 100 LTs, with 50 HOPE preconditioned liver grafts and 50 grafts stored in static cold storage (SCS). During reperfusion phase, prospectively registered serum parameters and vasopressor administration were analyzed. (3) Results: Twelve percent of patients developed PRS in the HOPE cohort vs. 42% in the SCS group (p = 0.0013). Total vasopressor demand in the first hour after reperfusion was lower after HOPE pretreatment, with reduced usage of norepinephrine (−26%; p = 0.122) and significant reduction of epinephrine consumption (−52%; p = 0.018). Serum potassium concentration dropped by a mean of 14.1% in transplantations after HOPE, compared to a slight decrease of 1% (p < 0.001) after SCS. The overall incidence of early allograft dysfunction (EAD) was reduced by 44% in the HOPE group (p = 0.04). (4) Conclusions: Pre-transplant graft preconditioning with HOPE results in higher hemodynamic stability during reperfusion and lower incidence of PRS and EAD. HOPE has the potential to mitigate ES by preventing hyperpotassemic complications that need to be addressed in LT with HOPE-pre-treated grafts.

A Novel Deep Learning Model as a Donor-Recipient Matching Tool to Predict Survival after Liver Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: The "digital era" in the field of medicine is the new "here and now". Artificial intelligence has entered many fields of medicine and is recently emerging in the field of organ transplantation. Solid organs remain a scarce resource. Being able to predict the outcome after liver transplantation promises to solve one of the long-standing problems within organ transplantation. What is the perfect donor recipient match? Within this work we developed and validated a novel deep-learning-based donor-recipient allocation system for liver transplantation. METHOD: In this study we used data collected from all liver transplant patients between 2004 and 2019 at the university transplantation centre in Munich. We aimed to design a transparent and interpretable deep learning framework to predict the outcome after liver transplantation. An individually designed neural network was developed to meet the unique requirements of transplantation data. The metrics used to determine the model quality and its level of performance are accuracy, cross-entropy loss, and F1 score as well as AUC score. RESULTS: A total of 529 transplantations with a total of 1058 matching donor and recipient observations were added into the database. The combined prediction of all outcome parameters was 95.8% accurate (cross-entropy loss of 0.042). The prediction of death within the hospital was 94.3% accurate (cross-entropy loss of 0.057). The overall F1 score was 0.899 on average, whereas the overall AUC score was 0.940. CONCLUSION: With the achieved results, the network serves as a reliable tool to predict survival. It adds new insight into the potential of deep learning to assist medical decisions. Especially in the field of transplantation, an AUC Score of 94% is very valuable. This neuronal network is unique as it utilizes transparent and easily interpretable data to predict the outcome after liver transplantation. Further validation must be performed prior to utilization in a clinical context.

Kynurenine serves as useful biomarker in acute, Long- and Post-COVID-19 diagnostics.

Introduction: In patients with SARS-CoV-2, innate immunity is playing a central role, depicted by hyperinflammation and longer lasting inflammatory response. Reliable inflammatory markers that cover both acute and long-lasting COVID-19 monitoring are still lacking. Thus, we investigated one specific inflammatory marker involved as one key player of the immune system, kynurenine (Kyn), and its use for diagnosis/detection of the Long-/Post-COVID syndrome in comparison to currently used markers in both serum and saliva samples. Material and methods: The study compromised in total 151 inpatients with a SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalized between 03/2020 and 09/2021. The group NC (normal controls) included blood bank donors (n=302, 144f/158m, mean age 47.1 ± 18.3 years (range 18-75)). Two further groups were generated based on Group A (n=85, 27f/58m, mean age 63.1 ± 18.3 years (range 19-90), acute admission to the hospital) and Group B (n=66, 22f/44m, mean age 66.6 ± 17.6 years (range 17-90), admitted either for weaning or for rehabilitation period due to Long-COVID symptoms/syndrome). Plasma concentrations of Kyn, C-Reactive Protein (CRP) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) were measured on admission. In Group B we determined Kyn 4 weeks after the negative PCR-test. In a subset of patients (n=11) concentrations of Kyn and CRP were measured in sera and saliva two, three and four months after dismission. We identified 12 patients with Post-COVID symptoms >20 weeks with still significant elevated Kyn-levels. Results: Mean values for NC used as reference were 2.79 ± 0.61 µM, range 1.2-4.1 µM. On admission, patients showed significantly higher concentrations of Kyn compared to NC (p-values < 0.001). Kyn significantly correlated with IL-6 peak-values (r=0.411; p-values <0.001) and CRP (r=0.488, p-values<0.001). Kyn values in Group B (Long-/Post-COVID) showed still significant higher values (8.77 ± 1.72 µM, range 5.5-16.6 µM), whereas CRP values in Group B were in the normal range. Conclusion: Serum and saliva Kyn are reflecting the acute and long-term pathophysiology of the SARS-CoV-2 disease concerning the innate immune response and thus may serve a useful biomarker for diagnosis and monitoring both Long- and Post-COVID syndrome and its therapy.

The interactions between major immune effector cells and Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common liver neoplasm with high morbidity and mortality. Tumor immunotherapy might be promising adjuvant therapy for HCC after surgery. To better develop HCC immunotherapy, comprehensive understanding of cell-cell interactions between immune effector cells and HCC cells remains crucial. AIM: To review the existing studies to summarize the cell-cell interactions between major immune effector cells and HCC cells providing new data for HCC immunotherapy. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted by searching PubMed database covering all papers published in recent five years up to January 2020. The guidelines of the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews were firmly followed. RESULTS: There are 9 studies researching the interactions between CD8+ T lymphocytes and HCC cells and 22 studies researching that between natural killer (NK) cells and HCC cells. Among the 9 studies, 6 studies reported that CD8+ T lymphocytes showed cytotoxicity towards HCC cells while 3 studies found CD8+ T lymphocytes were impaired by HCC cells. Among the 22 studies, 20 studies presented that NK cells could inhibit HCC cells. Two studies were found to report NK cell dysfunction in HCC. CONCLUSION: Based on the systematic analysis, we concluded that CD8+ T lymphocytes and NK cells can inhibit HCC cells. While in turn, HCC cells can also result in the dysfunction of those effector cells through various mechanisms. Organoids and direct contact cell co-culture with primary HCC cells and TILs should be the most innovative way to investigate the interactions and develop novel immunotherapy.

Patient expectations shape convalescence after major liver surgery - A prospective, randomized study.

BACKGROUND: Several studies suggest an important influence of patient expectations on outcomes. We hypothesized that patient expectations with regard to length of postoperative stay influence convalescence after liver resections. METHOD: This prospective, randomized study compared patients who were preoperatively either informed to be expected to stay 7-10 days (short arm) or 12-16 days (long arm) after major liver resections (≥4 segments). Additionally, psychological traits were assessed using questionnaires and the time to fulfillment of objective discharge criteria [oral analgesics only, first bowel movement, ability to tolerate solid food, full mobilization, no complications which need general anesthesia (>CD IIIa)] was defined as the primary endpoint. RESULTS: Patients in the short arm reached the objective discharge criteria after 8.39 days (SD 3.60), while patients in the long arm needed 12.73 days (SD 3.43) (p = 0.001). The actual length of stay in the short arm was 12.00 (IQR 8-16) and 19.3 days in the long arm (IQR 14-26) (p = 0.008). A more pronounced self-efficacy correlated with earlier fulfillment of the objective discharge criteria (p = 0.048), whereas patients placing a high value on their health needed more time (p = 0.049). CONCLUSION: The expectation of a shorter length of stay results in a quicker objective, physical patient convalescence after major liver resections.

The predictive value of tumor infiltrating leukocytes in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: For Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surgery either through resection or transplantation often provides the only chance for cure. Since hepatocarcinogenesis and postsurgical prognosis is not only dependent on cirrhosis but also on immune activation and exhaustion, many studies have investigated tumor infiltrating leukocyte (TIL) subsets. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims at describing the cell groups and their predictive power regarding overall (OS), disease free (DFS) and recurrence free survival (RFS). MATERIAL AND METHODS: A systematic search of the PubMed database was conducted (PROSPERO 172324). Data on CD3+, CD8+, Treg, B cells, macrophages, neutrophil and NK-cells were collected from Pubmed and related references up to December 2018. Overall (OS), disease-free (DFS) and recurrence free survival (RFS) in dependence of high vs. low infiltration rates were compared using a random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Altogether data from 3541 patients enrolled in 20 publications were included. Except for Tregs and Neutrophils, heterogeneity analysis was found to be moderate to high across the studies. High CD3+, CD8+, NK-cell infiltration predicted better survival (OS, DFS and RFS; p < 0.05). Higher Treg and Neutrophil infiltration predicted lower OS and DFS. For Macrophages and B cells no difference in survival could be found. DISCUSSION: As with other solid tumors immune infiltration has a great influence on survival after resection. However, a considerable publication bias cannot be ruled out in mostly retrospective analyses. Nevertheless, in light of novel immune modulatory treatments this opens a new avenue towards effective and well-tolerated adjuvant treatment.

Liver transplantation in a patient after COVID-19 - Rapid loss of antibodies and prolonged viral RNA shedding.

To date, little is known about the duration and effectiveness of immunity as well as possible adverse late effects after an infection with SARS-CoV-2. Thus it is unclear, when and if liver transplantation can be safely offered to patients who suffered from COVID-19. Here, we report on a successful liver transplantation shortly after convalescence from COVID-19 with subsequent partial seroreversion as well as recurrence and prolonged shedding of viral RNA.

Liver transplantation versus watchful waiting in hepatocellular carcinoma patients with complete response to bridging therapy - a retrospective observational study.

Bridging therapy to prevent progression on the waiting list can result in a sustained complete response (sCR). In some patients, the liver transplantation (LT) risk might exceed those of tumor recurrence. We thus evaluated whether a watchful waiting (CR-WW) strategy could be a feasible alternative to transplantation (CR-LT). We performed a retrospective analysis of overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) of patients with a sCR (CR > 6 months). Permitted bridging included thermoablation, resection, and combinations of either with transarterial chemoembolization. Patients were divided into the intended treatment strategies CR-WW and CR-LT. 39 (18.40%) sCR patients from 212 were investigated. 22 patients were treated with a CR-LT and 17 patients a CR-WW strategy. Five-year RFS was lower in the CR-WW than in the CR-LT group [53.3% (22.1%; 77.0%) and 84.0% (57.6%; 94.7%)]. 29.4% (5/17) CR-WW patients received salvage transplantation because of recurrence. OS (5-year) was 83.9% [56.8%; 94.7%] after LT and 75.4% [39.8%; 91.7%] after WW. Our analysis shows that the intuitive decision made by our patients in agreement with their treating physicians for a watchful waiting strategy in sCR can be justified. Applied on a larger scale, this strategy could help to reduce the pressure on the donor pool.

Specific Management of Patients with Acute Abdomen during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Surgical Perspective from Germany.

During the current COVID-19 pandemic, the triage, assessment, and management of patients presenting to the emergency department with critical conditions has become -challenging. The clinical features of COVID-19 are heterogeneous and subtle in many cases. They may easily be overlooked in the case of other acute diseases. Gastrointestinal symptoms are common in patients with COVID-19 as SARS-CoV-2 is able to enter gastrointestinal epithelial cells. However, these complaints can also be caused by a COVID-19-independent concomitant abdominal pathology. Therefore, patients with acute abdominal pain and fever need to be assessed very thoroughly. Based on a clinical case, we present our approach of managing emergency patients with acute abdomen and concomitant suspicion of -COVID-19.

Attenuated early inflammatory response in solid organ recipients with COVID-19.

Immunosuppression leaves transplanted patients at particular risk for severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. The specific features of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in immunosuppressed patients are largely unknown and therapeutic experience is lacking. Seven transplanted patients (two liver, three kidneys, one double lung, one heart) admitted to the Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich because of COVID-19 and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were included. The clinical course and the clinical findings were extracted from the medical record. The two liver transplant patients and the heart transplant patient had an uncomplicated course and were discharged after 14, 18, and 12 days, respectively. Two kidney transplant recipients were intubated within 48 hours. One kidney and the lung transplant recipients were required to intubate after 10 and 15 days, respectively. Immunosuppression was adapted in five patients, but continued in all patients. Compared to non-transplanted patients at the ICU (n = 19) the inflammatory response was attenuated in transplanted patients, which was proven by decreased IL-6 blood values. This analysis might provide evidence that continuous immunosuppression is safe and probably beneficial since there was no hyperinflammation evident. Although transplanted patients might be more susceptible to an infection with SARS-CoV-2, their clinical course seems to be similar to immunocompetent patients.

A novel machine learning algorithm to predict disease free survival after resection of hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Due to organ shortage, liver transplantation (LT) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients can only be offered subsidiary to other curative treatments, including liver resection (LR). We aimed at developing and validating a machine-learning algorithm (ML) to predict which patients are sufficiently treated by LR. METHODS: Twenty-six preoperatively available routine laboratory values along with standard clinical-pathological parameters [including the modified Glascow Prognostic Score (mGPS), the Kings Score (KS) and the Model of Endstage Liver Disease (MELD)] were retrieved from 181 patients who underwent partial LR due to HCC in non-cirrhosis or compensated cirrhosis from January 2007 through March 2018 at our institution. These data were processed using a Random Forest (RF)-based workflow, which included preprocessing, recursive feature elimination (RFE), resampling, training and cross-validation of the RF model. A subset of untouched patient data was used as a test cohort. Basing on the RF prediction, test data could be stratified according to high (HR) or low risk (LR) profile characteristics. RESULTS: RFE analysis provided 6 relevant outcome predictors: mGPS, aPTT, CRP, largest tumor size, number of lesions and age at time of operation. After down-sampling, the predictive value of our model was 0.788 (0.658-0.919) for early DFS. 16.7% of HR and 74.2% of LR patients survived 2 years of follow-up (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our RF model, based solely on clinical parameters, proved to be a powerful predictor of DFS. These results warrant a prospective study to improve the model for selection of suitable candidates for LR as alternative to transplantation. The predictive model is available online: tiny.cc/hcc_model.